China’s demand for technical MAP (tMAP) continues its rapid rise, driven by higher consumption of water-soluble fertilizers and its use in LFP batteries.
Water-soluble fertilizers demand for tMAP grows consistently in Xinjiang province. Xinjiang’s total grain output in 2023 was 21.19 Mt, up 16.9% year on year, according to China National Bureau of Statistics. The increase in planting area ranked first in China, rising 16.1% to 390,900 ha. in the full year 2023.
In response, tMAP (≥66%) has been included in the China national reserve for Xinjiang province for the first time, according to the 2024-2026 National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve.
In the meantime, CRU estimates China’s LFP sector is already consuming around 20% of the country’s tMAP production. That is set to grow to nearly 40% by 2028, with tMAP expected to remain the preferred phosphate input.
China’s tMAP demand is now larger than the rest of the world combined. The total demand is expected to reach 1.9 Mt in 2024, which accounts for 70% global market share, rising rapidly from 50% in 2019.
China is also the world’s largest tMAP exporter, but exports are forecast to increase only modestly, with more being sold domestically after restrictions imposed in 2021.
The 12-61 tMAP absolute premium to 11-44 MAP hit a peak high RMB3,719/t ($514/t) in July 2022. The premium gradually fell afterwards, reaching RMB2,037/t ($281/t) by November 2023.
However, China’s industrial tMAP demand jumped in May 2024, as the EU Commission announced intentions to impose anti-subsidy duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China, raising the import tariff from 10% to up to 48.1%, depending on the BEV producer.
Coupled with seasonally strong agricultural demand in Xinjiang province, the 12-61 tMAP price soared to RMB6,500/t EXW ($898/t) in May this year, RMB3,565/t ($492/t) higher than 11-44 MAP.
As tMAP is playing a more important role in both sectors, CRU has tracked prices on EXW and FOB basis in the past six months, launching these price series from this week.
