1. Scrap: Battle for scrap intensifies with China looking to import more, while Europe and US are looking to retain more scrap domestically. Watch for calls for scrap export taxes.
2. Alumina bottlenecks to ease and API to move sharply lower. Alumina production to increase in Indonesia and India. Bauxite sourcing to remain a concern.
3. In carbon products, the increasingly strong demand for battery anode materials from electric vehicles will push Green Petroleum Coke and Calcined Petroleum Coke prices higher.
4. The LME price will rise in 2025 as the market tightens. Premiums should also increase, with potential for substantial rises in the US if Trump hikes tariffs.
5. Demand will rise faster in 2025 than in 2024 in the world ex. China. Interest rates will fall and residential construction will improve in US and Europe. Despite headwinds, EV market will expand in Europe.
6. Russia to maintain elevated levels of primary metal exports to China, even if the war in Ukraine ends.
7. The aluminium industry will achieve its largest ever % reduction in CO2e emissions intensity; but remains on a >2°C course for global warming. Significant de-emphasizing of ESG in US likely with Trump.
8. 2025 will see more trade flow changes with Trump, tariffs and geopolitics. Chinese semis exports will fall, but not as dramatically as some think.
9. China: In alumina, the country will shift to being a net exporter; investments overseas to increase across the aluminium value chain.
10. Risks: the longer the alumina price stays high – the greater the risk of more primary capacity being idled.
