In this Insight, we explore the results of our annual client survey. This survey gathers opinions from our client base on their expectations and views for the world economy and sustainability issues for 2025 and beyond.
The survey was conducted in December. There were 98 responses from throughout the value chain, from miners to financial clients, and across commodity sectors. 40% of responses were from Europe, 31% from North America, 10% from Central and South America, 16% from Asia and 4% from Africa.
Trade and protectionism emerged as a key theme, both as a downside risk to growth and as an issue that could complicate the energy transition. Nonetheless, most clients were cautiously optimistic that 2025 will see continued steady growth, falling interest rates and further progress towards decarbonisation.
Clients expect global growth to remain steady, with a significant minority being more pessimistic
A clear majority of our clients (60%) expect global growth to be between 2–3% in 2025 (see chart below). This is in line with our forecast of 2.6%, and similar to growth in 2024 (which we expect to be 2.7%). 3% is widely acknowledged as being the trend rate of growth that can be expected from the world in ‘normal’ times.
However, a significant minority of clients – almost one-third – expect growth to be below 2%. In contrast, only 8% expect growth above 3%.
Biggest downside risks are protectionism and geopolitics
Clients were asked to name the risks to growth over the next three years that they are most worried about. The single most heavily mentioned risk (clients could choose up to three) was protectionism and trade restrictions. Almost three quarters of clients mentioned this as a major risk, up from around one-third last year.
There continues to be a roughly equal level of concern about war as a downside risk, with the war in Ukraine continuing at a high intensity, and the growing complexity of war in the Middle East. Concerns about high interest rates, inflation and energy prices have eased somewhat, but have not gone away.
The concern over higher tariffs is, in large part, due to the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States of America. During the election campaign, he promised to impose increases in tariffs - 60% on China and 10–20% on other trading partners. Overall, most respondents to our survey do not think US tariffs will rise as much as Trump has mentioned (see chart below). However, almost all respondents do expect some increase in tariffs, with a plurality expecting average tariffs to rise to the 5–10% range (from around 2% currently). Customers based in Asia expect the highest level of tariffs.
Trade also looms large on the sustainability side
We also asked clients about what the most important sustainability issues they face are. The single most popular response was trade and trade restrictions, e.g. CBAM, the IRA and other measures which target emissions or impact green tech. A number of other issues – including carbon pricing, reporting requirements and supply chain issues – were of roughly equal importance. Few respondents mentioned biodiversity, extreme weather or water shortages as major issues.
Most customers expect fossil fuel demand to have peaked by 2030
A significant minority of respondents – almost one-third – in both Europe and Asia believe that consumption of fossil fuels in their region has already peaked, and the majority expect it will have peaked by 2030. Meanwhile, few respondents based in North America (and none in South America or Africa) believe that consumption has already peaked. However, even in the Americas almost 60% of respondents believe fossil fuel consumption will peak by 2030.
A range of technologies are seen as having high potential returns
We asked our clients to name the technologies or commodities which they believe will have the highest investment returns over the next five years. The responses are summarised in the word cloud below. Copper was the single most popular commodity, while hydrogen and solar were the most popular technologies. However, it was noteworthy that responses were spread across a wide range of technologies, and that most were linked in some way to decarbonisation.
Both risks and opportunities abound in the next few years
We also asked customers about their views on:
- Interest rates: Most respondents agreed with our view that interest rates will fall this year in most major economies, with respondents in North America being the most dovish. However, almost one-third thought they would stay roughly the same.
- EV transition: Half of the respondents expect global EV sales to grow between 0–10% y/y in 2025. Most of the remainder expect double-digit growth rates, with only around 11% expecting sales to fall.
Overall, the survey results paint a picture of a year in which there are significant risks and challenges – most of all around trade and geopolitics. However, clients are also focused on the many opportunities that will exist if we see continued growth, and as decarbonisation continues to rise up the agenda.
As 2025 progresses, you can follow how these key issues develop through our Sustainability and Emissions Service and Global Economic Outlook.
